Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:21:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3080…f041 sports 249 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$40 (+0%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%143W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$32
14 days+$2
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$154
other 8% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -10.1% -18.7% 52% 52% -11.1%
≤30d 61 -6.7% -15.6% 54% 54% -12.9%
≤90d 100 -10.2% -18.7% 53% 52% -14.2%
all 249 -3.0% -12.3% 57% 53% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 53% -8.8%
10% -20.7% 45% -17.5%
15% -28.3% 39% -25.5%
20% -35.4% 27% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$41 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses143 / 106
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions0
Markets (closed)249 / 249
History coverage140d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 249 Trades
no open positions (69 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 1 Winner: Pliskova vs Bouzkova Jun 20 $50 +$8 +16%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $70 −$69 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $99 −$30 -30%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $27 −$20 -75%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 +$74 +73%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $89 +$27 +30%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $100 −$12 -12%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $87 +$27 +31%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $16 −$16 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $60 −$56 -94%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $78 +$82 +105%
Hurkacz vs. Altmaier: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $47 +$31 +65%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $107 +$41 +39%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$56 +109%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $74 −$73 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $78 −$55 -71%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $51 +$26 +51%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 +$52 +52%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $73 −$72 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $61 +$44 +73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $81 +$48 +59%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $55 +$29 +54%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $101 +$53 +52%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $71 −$71 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $37 +$34 +93%
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 02 $43 −$42 -99%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $30 +$13 +42%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $41 −$40 -99%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jodar (+2.5) Jun 02 $51 +$20 +38%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $62 −$11 -18%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 May 31 $31 +$31 +101%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 31 $32 −$1 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $21 +$11 +53%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $58 −$37 -64%
Cabo Verde vs. Serbia: O/U 1.5 May 31 $41 +$17 +40%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Zhang Mingyang win by KO or TKO? May 30 $31 −$31 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 30 $61 +$22 +36%
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Carlston Harris (Welterweight, Main May 30 $27 +$3 +12%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 30 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $36 −$10 -27%
O/U 1.5 Rounds May 30 $18 +$8 +46%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 30 $78 +$21 +27%
AC Monza vs. US Catanzaro 1929: O/U 1.5 May 29 $45 +$33 +74%
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5) May 29 $50 −$49 -98%
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Michelsen (+1.5) May 29 $62 −$61 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Katie Boulter vs Anastasia Potapova May 28 $49 +$11 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set 1 Winner: Pliskova vs Bouzkova SELL Bouzkova 73¢ $57 1h
Set 1 Winner: Pliskova vs Bouzkova BUY Bouzkova 62¢ $50 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $70 14h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 37¢ $70 15h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $99 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $6 34h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $7 34h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $27 35h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $176 37h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $102 39h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $116 42h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $89 43h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $87 43h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $100 45h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $87 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 55¢ $1 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 55¢ $5 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 55¢ $10 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over $4 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $60 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $160 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $78 2d
Hurkacz vs. Altmaier: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 60¢ $47 2d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova SELL Jessica Pegula 86¢ $118 3d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova SELL Jessica Pegula 86¢ $31 3d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $107 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $107 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 3d
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 67¢ $101 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 476 history records