Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:26:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
30 0x3080…fa4a crypto 373 markets active 2h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,937 (-10%) realized −$3,228 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%103W / 269L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$290
14 days−$411
30 days−$1,071
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,188
other 0% −$32
sports 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +3.2% -6.6% 33% 30% -40.2%
≤30d 79 -16.6% -24.6% 30% 28% -41.0%
≤90d 325 -38.0% -43.9% 23% 19% -60.4%
all 372 -17.5% -25.4% 28% 24% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 24% -19.8%
10% -32.5% 22% -27.5%
15% -39.0% 19% -34.5%
20% -45.0% 17% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$64 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$3,228
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses103 / 269
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)372 / 373
History coverage206d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 372 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $79 +$40 +50%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $19 +$15 +77%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$15 +249%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $25 +$9 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -54%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -9%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $22 −$2 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $80 −$75 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $38 −$36 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$122 +625%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$11 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 8? Jun 11 $21 −$19 -91%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 8? Jun 11 $25 −$15 -61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$8 +121%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $103 −$20 -20%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $14 +$50 +356%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $6 $0 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $29 −$7 -26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$2 +125%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $95 +$22 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $124 +$102 +82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $214 −$105 -49%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $19 +$20 +106%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $10 +$8 +78%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3? Jun 03 $21 −$1 -3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 3? Jun 03 $71 +$14 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $97 −$90 -92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $16 +$34 +210%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $56 −$13 -23%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $57 −$3 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $48 +$34 +70%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $70 +$77 +110%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $11 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 38¢ $34 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $14 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? SELL No 7¢ $2 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? SELL No 8¢ $18 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 7¢ $6 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 7¢ $3 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 8¢ $11 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $86 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 75¢ $21 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.80 · official $1.80 (match) · 2642 history records