Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:03:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x307e…a953
crypto · 24 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$429 -27%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$320 · open −$109
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$981
Realized−$320
Unrealized−$109
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses5 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage97d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 1 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,090 $981 −$109 (-10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 09 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 09 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 09 $24 +$33 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 08 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 08 $6 +$6 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 08 $20 −$13 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 08 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 08 $10 +$16 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 08 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 08 $10 −$6 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 08 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 08 $10 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 08 $5 +$8 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 71% −$109
crypto 17% −$119
finance 13% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $904 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $211 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY Yes 0¢ $200 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $17 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $10 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $30 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $57 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $24 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $20 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $12 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $20 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $7 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $10 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $4 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $4 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $5 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-50.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 23 -45.2% -50.4% 22% 22% -72.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.4% 22% -72.1%
10% -55.2% 22% -74.8%
15% -59.5% 22% -77.2%
20% -63.5% 22% -79.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $980.77 · official $980.77 (match) · 39 history records