Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:39:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
30 0x3079…7b77 crypto 464 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$230 (-0%) realized −$230 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate64%299W / 165L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$175
14 days+$135
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$657
sports 1% −$51
other 0% −$51
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +1.7% -8.0% 75% 61% -4.6%
≤30d 148 -8.0% -16.8% 70% 52% -9.4%
≤90d 176 -8.0% -16.8% 69% 49% -9.8%
all 464 -7.3% -16.1% 64% 43% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 43% -10.8%
10% -24.1% 25% -19.3%
15% -31.5% 15% -27.1%
20% -38.2% 9% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$47 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$230
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses299 / 165
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)464 / 464
History coverage156d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 464 Trades
no open positions (57 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $86 −$40 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $44 +$21 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $122 −$70 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $456 +$64 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $153 +$51 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $126 +$19 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $194 +$40 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $122 +$36 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $41 +$16 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$26 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $36 +$34 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $46 +$13 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $109 −$50 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $93 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $128 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $97 +$17 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $45 +$46 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 10 $114 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 10 $54 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $48 −$47 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 10 $29 +$21 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$23 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $77 +$30 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $64 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $38 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $13 +$12 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $87 +$20 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $62 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 10 $101 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $66 +$21 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 08 $6 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $41 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $38 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $45 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $53 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $70 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $251 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $258 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $206 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $153 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $146 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $126 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2308 history records