Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:06:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x3078…0389
world · 86 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,554 +23%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$167 · open +$298
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,860
Realized+$167
Unrealized+$298
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses41 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions444
Markets (closed)71 / 86
History coverage1d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day3499.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 444 History 71 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$167
7 days+$167
14 days+$167
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 9¢ 70¢ $14 $108 +$95 (+683%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 23¢ 24¢ $105 $105 +$0 (+0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes 38¢ 48¢ $76 $94 +$19 (+25%)
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Yes 40¢ 57¢ $40 $58 +$18 (+44%)
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 24¢ 70¢ $19 $57 +$38 (+197%)
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? No 10¢ 35¢ $14 $50 +$36 (+247%)
Relay FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 10¢ 33¢ $13 $42 +$30 (+230%)
Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes 41¢ 64¢ $25 $40 +$14 (+56%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 31¢ 24¢ $51 $39 −$12 (-23%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $29 $24 −$4 (-14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $29 $24 −$5 (-18%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $21 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Diego Lopes become UFC champion in 2026? Yes 12¢ 17¢ $14 $21 +$6 (+44%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-05 House seat? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $14 $19 +$5 (+37%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $14 $17 +$4 (+29%)
Will Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+19%)
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+13%)
Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 14¢ 18¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+29%)
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $14 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 36¢ 26¢ $21 $15 −$6 (-26%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+6%)
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+5%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$6 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$4 +300%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +52%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 12 $1 +$6 +619%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +293%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 12 $2 +$4 +209%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +215%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $390 in June? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +200%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +382%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +160%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 12 $1 +$13 +1332%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 12 $1 +$14 +1056%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$65 +28147%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 12 $1 +$13 +1566%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 12 $1 −$3 -292%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +259%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 9? Jun 12 $1 −$2 -203%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 10? Jun 12 $0 +$2 +359%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 12 $0 −$3 -571%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 12 $0 +$4 +1110%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 8? Jun 12 $0 $0 +19%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +197%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +746%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 10? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +557%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +389%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in May? Jun 12 $0 $0 -18%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +559%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 12 $0 +$14 +9286%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 12 $0 +$10 +2353%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $375 +$19 +5%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 12 $42 +$18 +44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $70 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $77 −$11 -14%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $48 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $94 −$6 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $47 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $113 $0 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $2 $0 +28%
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $19 +$10 +54%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $105 −$2 -2%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $45 −$12 -26%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $90 −$3 -4%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $23 +$2 +8%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $18 −$2 -8%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $24 −$5 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 53% −$2
tech 26% −$7
other 13% +$298
finance 6% +$13
politics 1% −$15
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 28¢ $18 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 28¢ $18 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 28¢ $18 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 28¢ $18 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 28¢ $3 0m
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of June 8 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 0m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 0m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 0m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 38¢ $22 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 38¢ $22 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 38¢ $22 0m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $9 1m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $11 1m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 1m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $5 1m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 45¢ $10 1m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 45¢ $15 1m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 45¢ $15 1m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 45¢ $15 1m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 1m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 1m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 1m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 1m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 1m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+199.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +231.1% +199.6% 58% 46% -5.7%
≤30d 71 +231.1% +199.6% 58% 46% -5.7%
≤90d 71 +231.1% +199.6% 58% 46% -5.7%
all 71 +231.1% +199.6% 58% 46% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3499.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +199.6% 46% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here +170.9% 42% -14.7%
15% +144.8% 39% -22.9%
20% +120.8% 38% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,860.15 · official $1,975.32 · 3500 history records