Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3077…6b45 sports 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,440 (+5%) realized +$2,440 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate42%35W / 48L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$545per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$155est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$801
7 days+$2,207
14 days+$2,207
30 days+$2,787
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$2,611
sports 33% +$648
world 6% −$268
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.3% -8.3% 43% 14% -2.3%
≤30d 27 +5.2% -4.8% 37% 22% -2.1%
≤90d 31 +4.8% -5.2% 39% 23% -2.1%
all 83 -0.4% -9.9% 42% 17% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 17% -3.5%
10% -18.5% 6% -12.7%
15% -26.4% 4% -21.2%
20% -33.6% 2% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$29 · ×4.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.2 per $1 lost it wins $3.2
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,440
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses35 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$155
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage161d
Avg bet$545
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11,840 +$1,045 +9%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $160 −$8 -5%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3,003 +$289 +10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,704 −$268 -10%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,655 −$257 -10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7,236 +$1,406 +19%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 $0 -4%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $891 −$382 -43%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $0 +$1 +222%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC end in a draw? May 30 $551 +$251 +46%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,279 +$254 +20%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-29? May 25 $23 −$2 -10%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw? May 25 $5 $0 -8%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-29? May 25 $23 −$2 -9%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $62 −$35 -57%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1,225 +$117 +10%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC end in a draw? May 24 $34 −$11 -31%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $34 −$13 -37%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $624 +$323 +52%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw? May 23 $70 −$12 -17%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $979 +$116 +12%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC end in a draw? May 20 $81 +$7 +9%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $7 $0 -5%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $11 −$1 -7%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 19 $257 −$20 -8%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 19 $347 −$9 -3%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $415 +$50 +12%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $198 +$14 +7%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $11 $0 -4%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC end in a draw? Apr 21 $3 $0 -6%
Nuggets vs. Jazz Mar 03 $73 −$5 -7%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Mar 02 $97 +$5 +6%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 02 $331 −$119 -36%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 02 $202 +$33 +16%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Mar 01 $132 +$9 +7%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 4 Winner Mar 01 $49 +$4 +7%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 3 Winner Mar 01 $34 −$2 -6%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Mar 01 $232 −$107 -46%
Warriors vs. Pelicans Feb 28 $24 −$1 -5%
Rockets vs. Magic Feb 28 $19 +$2 +10%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Feb 28 $27 +$4 +17%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 28 $28 +$3 +12%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Feb 28 $49 +$4 +8%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Feb 28 $70 +$1 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Feb 28 $183 +$25 +14%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Feb 28 $64 +$17 +26%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Feb 28 $76 +$6 +8%
Timberwolves vs. Clippers Feb 27 $87 −$10 -12%
Lakers vs. Suns Feb 27 $34 −$12 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $560 55m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $567 55m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 82¢ $965 56m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $91 56m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 41¢ $597 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $901 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 47¢ $337 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $506 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $1,100 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $684 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 81¢ $1,044 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 55¢ $556 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $1,831 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 49¢ $644 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 46¢ $605 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 46¢ $1,209 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 43¢ $753 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 48¢ $1,335 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $862 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $855 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $2,096 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $2,122 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $4,382 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 69¢ $10 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 18h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $10 18h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 28¢ $5 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 18h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $6 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 817 history records