Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:30:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x3073…3413 sports 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$424 (+10%) realized +$420 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate64%116W / 64L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$7
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$403
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 70 +0.4% -9.1% 61% 61% -8.1%
≤90d 180 +10.3% -0.2% 64% 63% -0.4%
all 180 +10.3% -0.2% 64% 63% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 63% -0.4%
10% -9.8% 56% -9.9%
15% -18.5% 44% -18.6%
20% -26.5% 32% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$21 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$420
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses116 / 64
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions3
Markets (closed)180 / 183
History coverage54d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage FlyQuest 39¢ 100¢ $25 $64 +$39 (+157%)
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS DNS 61¢ 100¢ $25 $41 +$16 (+64%)
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS LOS 19¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Dplus KIA 81¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $15 +$20 +129%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$15 +73%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$13 +65%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$6 +27%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $25 +$10 +38%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$11 +56%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$46 +226%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$12 +57%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $20 +$8 +38%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $20 +$23 +114%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $20 +$4 +21%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $20 +$9 +46%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $20 +$40 +196%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $30 +$13 +44%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $30 +$7 +24%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $30 +$9 +31%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $30 +$3 +11%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $30 +$14 +46%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $30 +$15 +50%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $30 +$7 +25%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $30 +$12 +39%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $30 +$19 +62%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $31 +$37 +123%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $30 +$33 +109%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 4 Winner Jun 03 $6 +$2 +27%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $30 +$18 +60%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $30 +$6 +21%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $30 +$24 +78%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 4 Winner Jun 01 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $30 +$11 +36%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $30 +$6 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Dplus KIA 81¢ $25 42m
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS BUY LOS 19¢ $10 1h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS BUY DNS 61¢ $25 1h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 39¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $15 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 22¢ $10 7d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 49¢ $25 9d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 64¢ $20 11d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 57¢ $20 13d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 60¢ $20 13d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 62¢ $20 14d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 86¢ $25 14d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 78¢ $20 14d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 46¢ $25 15d
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Partizan Sangal 73¢ $25 15d
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner BUY E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 63¢ $20 15d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY Galions 72¢ $25 15d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 NORD 63¢ $20 15d
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 30¢ $20 15d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY PCIFIC 35¢ $20 16d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner BUY Fluxo W7M 47¢ $20 16d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Eintracht Spandau 100¢ $29 16d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 72¢ $20 16d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner BUY Forsaken 69¢ $20 16d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 68¢ $20 16d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 46¢ $20 16d
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner BUY E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 23¢ $20 16d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner BUY HMBLE 33¢ $20 16d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY G2 NORD 82¢ $20 16d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 69¢ $30 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.20 · official $105.20 (match) · 309 history records