Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:25:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
30 0x306f…5c35 other 167 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,551 (+1%) realized +$1,554 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate21%35W / 131L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$915per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$9
14 days−$93
30 days−$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$12
politics 29% −$56
sports 15% +$1,554
culture 2% −$5
economics 2% −$7
crypto 2% +$2
world 2% +$58
tech 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 36 -7.1% -15.9% 8% 3% -10.1%
≤90d 94 -1.7% -11.1% 5% 2% -8.7%
all 166 +1.6% -8.1% 21% 11% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 11% -8.6%
10% -16.9% 11% -17.4%
15% -24.9% 11% -25.3%
20% -32.3% 8% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,313) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$7 · ×10.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.76 per $1 lost it wins $2.76
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$252
Realized+$1,554
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses35 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)166 / 167
History coverage160d
Avg bet$915
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $255 $252 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,249 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $489 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,056 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,768 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,499 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,993 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,398 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,702 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,351 −$3 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 06 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,266 −$1 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,039 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 02 $1,577 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $813 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $190 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $407 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $317 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $350 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $2,559 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $325 −$1 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 25 $48 +$24 +50%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,833 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,908 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $1,558 −$2 -0%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,813 −$3 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 10 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $903 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,747 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $3,246 −$5 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $3,517 −$4 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 05 $872 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 03 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $868 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $435 2h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $435 6h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $363 24h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $364 26h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $488 27h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $489 30h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $503 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $504 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $483 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $484 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $454 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $454 3d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $426 4d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $427 4d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $255 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $812 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $813 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $587 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $588 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $531 9d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $532 9d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $706 9d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $707 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $671 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $672 10d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $554 10d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $555 10d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $616 10d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $617 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $694 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.88 · official $251.88 (match) · 608 history records