Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:36:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x306f…aa99 other 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$583 (+17%) realized +$909 · open −$326
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%30W / 56L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$120
14 days+$65
30 days+$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$550
other 19% −$167
sports 14% +$196
crypto 3% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +8.8% -1.5% 35% 35% +3.2%
≤30d 73 +5.6% -4.5% 33% 33% -1.1%
≤90d 76 +1.4% -8.3% 32% 32% -6.0%
all 86 +7.6% -2.7% 35% 33% +18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 33% +18.9%
10% -12.0% 30% +7.5%
15% -20.5% 29% -2.8%
20% -28.3% 28% -12.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$19 · ×3.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$909
Unrealized−$326
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses30 / 56
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions11
Markets (closed)86 / 98
History coverage457d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 50¢ 14¢ $418 $113 −$304 (-73%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $22 $25 +$4 (+16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 4.5 Corners Over 37¢ 17¢ $26 $12 −$14 (-54%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? No 22¢ 14¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-34%)
Chemsdine Talbi: 1+ assists Yes 6¢ 22¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+267%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 16¢ 2¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-86%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 0¢ 0¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $34 −$1 -3%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $2 $0 -5%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $35 +$77 +220%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $17 +$50 +286%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $23 −$22 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $17 −$4 -21%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -21%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $13 +$17 +134%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$14 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $23 +$27 +114%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$25 +158%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $34 +$16 +46%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $13 +$17 +140%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $22 −$22 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $23 +$20 +88%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16 +$32 +197%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$15 +307%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $17 +$23 +140%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$20 +216%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 +$16 +87%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 +$11 +185%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $64 −$33 -52%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$35 +233%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $38 +$22 +57%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $3 +$22 +712%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 −$34 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $39 +$41 +103%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 1h
Chemsdine Talbi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 37¢ $26 1h
Chemsdine Talbi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 42¢ $33 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 4h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 5h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $6 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 42¢ $34 7h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 7h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $11 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 14h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 14h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 25h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $21 25h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 1¢ $2 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 8¢ $7 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 68¢ $67 26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $14 28h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 33¢ $23 28h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 28h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $17 28h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $28 28h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 28h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.62 · official $227.56 · 207 history records