Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:57:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x306b…179e
sports · 188 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,004 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,915 · open −$76
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$712
Realized−$1,915
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses32 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$510
Open positions4
Markets (closed)184 / 188
History coverage33d
Avg bet$611
Trades / day57.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 4 History 184 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days−$119
14 days−$316
30 days−$872
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $787 $709 −$77 (-10%)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+6.5) Aurora Gaming 0¢ 0¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+150%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 12? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? No 0¢ 0¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+100%)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-7.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+7.5) XLG Gaming 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Virtus.pro vs Verso Time (BO5) - MLBB Continental Championships Playoffs Virtus.pro 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-3.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+3.5) HEROIC Academy 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID - Game 3 Winner Dewa United Esports 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 Under 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: GenOne (-9.5) vs SPARTA (+9.5) GenOne 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
LoL: BOMBA Team vs The Ruddy Sack (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage BOMBA Team 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Under 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 5.5 Over 24¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 Over 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: GenOne (-3.5) vs SPARTA (+3.5) GenOne 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Under 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+3.5) NRG 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Second half draw? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Under 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Under 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FULL SENSE (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) FULL SENSE 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) TYLOO 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-6.5) vs XLG Gaming (+6.5) Global Esports 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -10%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $14 −$13 -93%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to win the second half? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Second half draw? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -3%
Will Future perform "Thought It Was a Drought" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ce Jun 12 $1 $0 -18%
Will Future perform "PUFFIN ON ZOOTIEZ" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -59%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $350 $0 -0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -3%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $268 $0 -0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 12 $16 −$8 -51%
Will Future perform "712PM" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 12 $3 $0 -11%
Will Future perform "Same Damn Time" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 12 $1 $0 -18%
Will Future perform "Stick Talk" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Will Future perform "TOO FAST" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Will France be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 W Jun 12 $27 −$1 -5%
Will Tunisia go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -51%
Will Future perform "Like That" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -59%
Will Future perform "Mask Off" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -82%
Will Ivory Coast go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $17 −$1 -6%
Will England be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Jun 12 $1 $0 -28%
Will Iran go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Future perform "March Madness" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: GenOne (-3.5) vs SPARTA (+3.5) Jun 12 $250 $0 -0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $1,087 +$2 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: GenOne (-6.5) vs SPARTA (+6.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: GenOne (-3.5) vs SPARTA (+3.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: GenOne (-9.5) vs SPARTA (+9.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $550 $0 -0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 12 $504 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 12 $250 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $194 −$1 -1%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 12 $799 $0 -0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $1,499 $0 -0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $502 +$2 +0%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $488 +$4 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -14%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Monte (-3.5) vs PARIVISION (+3.5) Jun 12 $30 $0 -0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $310 +$5 +2%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) Jun 12 $181 +$89 +49%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $5,343 +$1 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ex-RUBY (-6.5) vs G2 Ares (+6.5) Jun 12 $2,797 $0 -0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ex-RUBY (-3.5) vs G2 Ares (+3.5) Jun 12 $2,352 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 61% −$463
other 29% −$153
crypto 5% −$333
world 3% −$1,041
tech 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2m
Will Egypt go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL No 68¢ $14 5m
Will Egypt go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 75¢ $15 6m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 0¢ $5 14m
Will Ecuador go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL No 5¢ $1 15m
Will Ecuador go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 70¢ $14 16m
Bosnia-Herzegovina to win the second half? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 34m
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Second half draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 35m
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Second half draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 35m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 0¢ $0 56m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 0¢ $0 56m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 100¢ $100 56m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+6.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 0¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 0¢ $3 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 0¢ $1 1h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 SELL Over 0¢ $0 1h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+6.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 0¢ $0 1h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 1h
Will Future perform "Thought It Was a Drought" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ce SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Future perform "PUFFIN ON ZOOTIEZ" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 0¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 0¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 173 +33.6% +20.9% 16% 3% -9.8%
≤30d 182 +31.2% +18.7% 18% 4% -10.4%
≤90d 184 +30.6% +18.2% 17% 4% -11.2%
all 184 +30.6% +18.2% 17% 4% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover57.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.2% 4% -11.2%
10% +6.9% 4% -19.7%
15% ← realistic here -3.4% 4% -27.5%
20% -12.9% 3% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $712.14 · official $712.14 (match) · 2002 history records