Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x3069…83cd
other · 61 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,903 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,703 · open +$132
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,151
Realized−$2,703
Unrealized+$132
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses18 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$423
Open positions14
Markets (closed)47 / 61
History coverage270d
Avg bet$862
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 14 History 47 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$349
7 days−$3,083
14 days−$3,083
30 days−$3,563
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $2,377 $2,487 +$110 (+5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,052 $1,429 +$378 (+36%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $910 $825 −$85 (-9%)
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $995 $786 −$209 (-21%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $366 $379 +$13 (+4%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 28¢ $196 $279 +$83 (+42%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $265 $225 −$40 (-15%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $260 $190 −$70 (-27%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $200 $150 −$50 (-25%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 34¢ 46¢ $78 $105 +$26 (+34%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $82 $101 +$19 (+23%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 17¢ $120 $94 −$26 (-21%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $94 $82 −$12 (-13%)
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $24 $19 −$5 (-21%)
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1,963 $0 −$1,963 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1,031 $0 −$1,031 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $89 $0 −$89 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $261 −$130 -50%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $23 +$10 +46%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $33 −$32 -99%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,674 −$197 -7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 10 $3,597 −$3,144 -87%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $711 +$410 +58%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $941 −$191 -20%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $3,538 −$174 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $271 −$79 -29%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 15 $72 −$37 -52%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 14 $1,539 −$1,065 -69%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $170 +$147 +87%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $2,020 −$1,963 -97%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? May 12 $770 +$152 +20%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 12 $710 −$274 -39%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 12 $843 −$418 -50%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 10 $72 −$61 -85%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 08 $1,904 +$280 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 08 $1,039 −$891 -86%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 08 $1,031 −$1,031 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $1,061 +$389 +37%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 05 $809 +$391 +48%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 04 $6,734 +$1,939 +29%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves advance to the Conference Finals in the 20 May 04 $461 +$122 +26%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 01 $1,099 +$940 +86%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 29 $1,188 −$461 -39%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 24 $500 +$760 +152%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $2,890 +$1,785 +62%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $100 −$57 -57%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $2,759 +$588 +21%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 22 $390 −$390 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $570 +$170 +30%
Will Stephen Curry win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $275 +$211 +77%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $80 −$48 -60%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $35 $0 -1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $43 −$21 -50%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 25 $287 −$245 -85%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 15 $349 −$64 -18%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 04 $25 +$6 +24%
Will Trump say "Percent" 7+ times during meetings with Chancellor Merz Mar 03 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Trump say "France" during meetings with Chancellor Merz? Mar 03 $10 −$6 -58%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during address to UN General Asse Oct 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Kamala Harris say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" on the Rachel Maddow Show Oct 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 7+ times during address to UN Gen Oct 25 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Sep 22 $49 $0 -1%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 22 $25 +$4 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 32% −$5,301
sports 26% −$468
other 19% −$846
politics 17% +$2,344
finance 6% +$1,721
crypto 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 42m
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 54m
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 55m
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 55m
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 55m
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 55m
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 20¢ $14 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 9¢ $131 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $111 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $87 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $174 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $1,620 10h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $1 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $473 14h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $84 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 43¢ $33 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1,019 39h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 29¢ $2 39h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 9¢ $21 39h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 8¢ $2 39h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 29¢ $8 39h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 8¢ $9 39h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 30¢ $12 39h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $2,477 39h
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 2d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 21¢ $581 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -23.3% -30.6% 33% 33% -47.7%
≤30d 10 -32.6% -39.0% 20% 20% -37.3%
≤90d 38 -17.3% -25.2% 39% 39% -15.1%
all 47 -17.9% -25.7% 38% 38% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 38% -15.3%
10% -32.8% 30% -23.4%
15% -39.3% 21% -30.8%
20% -45.3% 15% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,151.03 · official $7,151.12 (match) · 736 history records