Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:22:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x3069…f8ef
politics · 370 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$26,083 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$25,732 · open −$1,268
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$55,175
Realized+$25,732
Unrealized−$1,268
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses215 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions49
Markets (closed)321 / 370
History coverage342d
Avg bet$919
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 49 History 321 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$705
7 days+$405
14 days+$4,114
30 days+$7,508
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 82¢ $10,331 $10,560 +$230 (+2%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 84¢ 85¢ $4,409 $4,438 +$30 (+1%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 83¢ 82¢ $3,490 $3,457 −$33 (-1%)
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? No 84¢ 97¢ $2,511 $2,908 +$397 (+16%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 90¢ 84¢ $3,000 $2,802 −$198 (-7%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $2,933 $2,578 −$355 (-12%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? No 64¢ 72¢ $1,991 $2,233 +$242 (+12%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 56¢ 64¢ $1,960 $2,222 +$262 (+13%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 69¢ 46¢ $3,000 $2,022 −$978 (-33%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 88¢ 88¢ $2,000 $2,011 +$11 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 56¢ 52¢ $2,005 $1,864 −$141 (-7%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 80¢ 84¢ $1,600 $1,670 +$70 (+4%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 90¢ 92¢ $1,400 $1,425 +$25 (+2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 92¢ $1,156 $1,378 +$222 (+19%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 61¢ 81¢ $915 $1,222 +$307 (+34%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 69¢ 40¢ $2,000 $1,174 −$826 (-41%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 88¢ 84¢ $1,204 $1,144 −$60 (-5%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 40¢ 34¢ $1,300 $1,121 −$179 (-14%)
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Yes 90¢ 96¢ $900 $960 +$60 (+7%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes 70¢ 56¢ $1,000 $800 −$200 (-20%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 45¢ 69¢ $500 $772 +$272 (+54%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 90¢ 98¢ $600 $650 +$50 (+8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 89¢ 100¢ $500 $561 +$61 (+12%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 80¢ 56¢ $800 $555 −$245 (-31%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 36¢ $1,000 $537 −$463 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $125 +$52 +42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1,500 +$27 +2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $511 +$600 +117%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? Jun 12 $174 +$26 +15%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 09 $308 −$300 -97%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $80 +$36 +45%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $159 +$41 +26%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $206 +$105 +51%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $225 +$385 +171%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $7,432 +$1,363 +18%
Will SpaceX have 14 or more launches in May? Jun 02 $40 +$7 +18%
Will SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in May? Jun 02 $76 +$31 +41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? Jun 02 $1,228 +$371 +30%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $1,500 +$113 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 02 $1,800 +$200 +11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $2,268 +$243 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2,500 +$814 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 28 $500 −$66 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $1,890 +$210 +11%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 26 $52 −$33 -63%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 26 $2,803 +$56 +2%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 25 $8,200 −$72 -1%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el May 25 $1,529 −$58 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $1,738 +$16 +1%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House May 25 $2,034 −$171 -8%
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in May? May 25 $11 +$8 +74%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? May 24 $1,615 +$219 +14%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 24 $1,000 +$33 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $2,000 +$78 +4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 24 $1,500 +$213 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $2,168 +$871 +40%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 23 $1,731 +$355 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $1,200 +$54 +4%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31? May 23 $1,462 +$216 +15%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success May 23 $2,061 +$1,218 +59%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $210 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 20? May 21 $245 +$8 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 21 $2,760 +$240 +9%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30? May 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? May 18 $892 +$108 +12%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? May 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $2,720 +$631 +23%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15? May 12 $273 −$16 -6%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? May 08 $821 +$179 +22%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 08 $2,209 +$261 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 01 $300 +$89 +30%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $1,500 +$286 +19%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy bo May 01 $1,896 +$492 +26%
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in April? Apr 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 39% +$10,171
politics 25% +$5,244
other 16% +$3,948
tech 10% +$8,123
culture 8% −$3,418
crypto 1% −$329
finance 1% +$275
economics 0% +$68
sports 0% +$381
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 88¢ $2,000 27m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $1,000 29m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 34¢ $177 41m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $1,527 1h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $77 38h
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 2d
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 2d
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $264 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $337 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $603 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $500 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $125 3d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $3 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 45¢ $511 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 31¢ $308 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $282 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $16 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $13 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 4d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $370 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $45 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $37 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $26 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 89¢ $500 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $440 4d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $45 4d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $401 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +15.2% +4.2% 80% 60% +4.5%
≤30d 41 +13.0% +2.3% 78% 56% +2.2%
≤90d 82 +13.3% +2.5% 74% 56% +2.9%
all 321 +16.3% +5.2% 67% 55% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.2% 55% -1.3%
10% ← realistic here -4.8% 35% -10.7%
15% -14.0% 22% -19.4%
20% -22.5% 13% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55,175.30 · official $55,175.93 (match) · 3500 history records