Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3063…5c31 sports 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$291 (-4%) realized −$291 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate58%85W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$84
14 days+$102
30 days+$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$423
other 15% +$120
crypto 1% +$5
politics 0% +$5
economics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +9.2% -1.2% 73% 73% +11.0%
≤30d 14 +11.2% +0.6% 71% 71% +12.2%
≤90d 53 -6.0% -14.9% 58% 47% -14.1%
all 146 -13.7% -22.0% 58% 32% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 32% -13.5%
10% -29.4% 25% -21.8%
15% -36.2% 19% -29.4%
20% -42.5% 12% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$18 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$291
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses85 / 61
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)146 / 150
History coverage232d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Under 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $29 +$22 +73%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $40 +$12 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$19 +38%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$16 +32%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$46 -91%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $39 +$16 +42%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $12 −$5 -41%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $27 +$22 +82%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Apr 13 $19 +$8 +40%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $24 +$1 +4%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Apr 09 $23 +$1 +3%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $22 +$1 +6%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $13 +$9 +69%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $148 −$108 -73%
Hornets vs. Timberwolves Apr 06 $30 +$19 +62%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Apr 06 $20 +$8 +39%
Kings vs. Raptors Apr 02 $163 −$46 -28%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Apr 02 $166 −$16 -10%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Apr 01 $35 +$7 +19%
Knicks vs. Rockets Apr 01 $30 −$30 -99%
Pistons vs. Thunder Mar 31 $190 −$65 -34%
Suns vs. Grizzlies Mar 31 $30 +$8 +26%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Mar 30 $50 +$22 +44%
Knicks vs. Thunder Mar 30 $50 +$14 +27%
Bulls vs. Grizzlies Mar 29 $50 −$28 -56%
Knicks vs. Hornets Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Kings vs. Magic Mar 27 $86 +$4 +4%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 26 $5 $0 +3%
Nets vs. Warriors Mar 26 $13 +$3 +23%
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Mar 26 $17 +$2 +12%
Wizards vs. Jazz Mar 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 26 $10 −$8 -80%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 26 $10 +$17 +167%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 25 $10 +$5 +52%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mar 24 $30 +$3 +10%
Bucks vs. Clippers Mar 24 $5 −$5 -93%
Rockets vs. Bulls Mar 24 $10 −$9 -87%
Pacers vs. Magic Mar 24 $10 −$5 -51%
Raptors vs. Suns Mar 23 $10 −$7 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 43h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 45h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 45h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $70 47h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $39 9d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets SELL Nuggets 34¢ $7 60d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 60d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 60d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 58¢ $12 60d
Rockets vs. Lakers SELL Lakers 100¢ $50 62d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 54¢ $27 62d
Nuggets vs. Spurs SELL Nuggets 100¢ $27 68d
Nuggets vs. Spurs BUY Nuggets 71¢ $19 68d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.18 · official $80.18 (match) · 394 history records