Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:02:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

30 0x3062…e142 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$85 (+17%) realized +$147 · open −$62

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip

Net edge+45%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$126per market

Trades / day5.8pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$238now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+51.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+67.1%	+51.2%	100%	100%	+40.4%
≤30d	3	+67.1%	+51.2%	100%	100%	+40.4%
≤90d	3	+67.1%	+51.2%	100%	100%	+40.4%
all	3	+67.1%	+51.2%	100%	100%	+40.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+51.2%	100%	+40.4%
10%	+36.7%	67%	+27.0%
15%	+23.5%	67%	+14.7%
20%	+11.4%	67%	+3.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 83% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +55% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +67% · $-wt +55% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$37 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$238

Realized+$147

Unrealized−$62

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$126

Trades / day5.8

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	84¢	66¢	$300	$237	−$62 (-21%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 23	$51	+$27	+54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$51	+$65	+129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$100	+$18	+18%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$301	1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score	SELL No	100¢	$78	1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	64¢	$51	3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$51	25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$119	25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	84¢	$100	26h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.50 · official $237.50 (match) · 7 history records