Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:12:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3061…6910 crypto 41 markets active 18h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (162 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$171 (+10%) realized +$171 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%21W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day161.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (162 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -3.0% -12.2% 51% 41% -9.5%
≤30d 41 -3.0% -12.2% 51% 41% -9.5%
≤90d 41 -3.0% -12.2% 51% 41% -9.5%
all 41 -3.0% -12.2% 51% 41% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover161.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 41% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 32% -18.2%
15% -28.3% 24% -26.1%
20% -35.3% 15% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$171
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses21 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage1d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day161.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$12 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $85 −$80 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$23 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $85 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $127 −$10 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$7 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $64 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $85 +$17 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$8 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $63 +$36 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$15 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $63 +$23 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $43 −$25 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$17 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $84 +$30 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $127 +$16 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $105 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $64 −$27 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$30 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $64 −$7 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$13 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$17 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$24 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$13 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$20 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$7 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $17 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $27 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $16 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $39 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $9 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $21 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $21 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $21 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $21 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $4 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $21 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $15 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $21 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $14 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 182 history records