Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
30 0x3060…210c crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 221d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$1,007 (+19%) realized +$1,007 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate66%33W / 17L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$50
14 days−$50
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$906
other 34% +$52
finance 3% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 1% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+43.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 29 +2.6% -7.2% 52% 41% +20.0%
all 50 +59.0% +43.8% 66% 38% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +43.8% 38% +6.3%
10% +30.1% 38% -3.9%
15% +17.5% 38% -13.2%
20% +6.0% 32% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +121% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$57 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized+$1,007
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses33 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage221d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $98 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 17 $141 +$251 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 17 $28 +$28 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 16 $70 +$128 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 16 $120 +$78 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 16 $102 −$42 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 16 $28 +$21 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 16 $116 +$48 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 16 $5 +$4 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 30 $105 +$195 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 30 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 30 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 30 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 30 $190 +$198 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 30 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 30 $48 +$35 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 30 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 30 $107 +$73 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 29 $283 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 14 $54 +$136 +251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,500 (HIGH) in March 2026? Apr 14 $167 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Mar 27 $163 +$2 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the Mar 16 $225 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 9 above $250? Mar 16 $300 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 11 $220 $0 +0%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Mar 11 $305 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 03 $465 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 10 $131 +$392 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 09 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 09 $2 +$2 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 09 $70 +$131 +186%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 February 2-8? Feb 09 $70 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $0.00 end of January? Feb 05 $65 $0 +0%
Adelaide International: Mirra Andreeva vs Diana Shnaider Jan 26 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 09 $259 −$259 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jan 09 $240 $0 +0%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 30 $100 +$50 +49%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 24 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Dec 24 $1 +$98 +9800%
Will Taylor Swift be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 10 $2 +$1 +50%
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) Dec 07 $18 +$62 +354%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 19? Nov 23 $120 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June? BUY No 100¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $392 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $21 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $18 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $24 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $56 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $198 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $52 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.82 · official $130.82 (match) · 268 history records