Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:42:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x305f…ba1f other 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 577d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+0%) realized +$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate23%15W / 49L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$340per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 66% −$15
politics 19% −$10
other 10% +$1
sports 2% +$76
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 54 +3.8% -6.1% 24% 13% -8.1%
all 64 +3.1% -6.7% 23% 11% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 11% -9.3%
10% -15.7% 11% -18.0%
15% -23.8% 11% -25.9%
20% -31.3% 9% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×5.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

577d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses15 / 49
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage577d
Avg bet$340
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? Jun 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $23 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 26 $34 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $171 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 18 $151 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $275 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $146 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 06 $54 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 3? May 06 $64 $0 +0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $144 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $144 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 01 $149 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $149 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $144 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $152 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 26 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 25 $142 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $138 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $141 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $444 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 24 $154 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $140 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $140 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $286 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $146 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $303 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $154 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 15 $154 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $152 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 +$8 +76%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $13 +$9 +72%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Suns vs. Hornets Apr 06 $17 +$8 +50%
Knicks vs. Thunder Apr 02 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 02 $23 $0 +1%
Celtics vs. Hawks Apr 02 $28 +$25 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 23m
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 4d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 4d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $27 5d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $27 5d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $65 6d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $27 12d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $27 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 13d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $28 14d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 14d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 21d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 21d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 22d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 23d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $34 24d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $34 24d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 27d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 27d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $22 28d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $22 28d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $54 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $23 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $23 30d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $19 30d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $19 30d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $151 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.32 · official $65.32 (match) · 283 history records