Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:38:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x305f…e9ab other 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%42W / 67L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days+$22
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$30
other 28% +$3
politics 23% −$20
economics 5% +$2
finance 1% $0
sports 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 29% 14% -12.2%
≤30d 30 -0.3% -9.8% 47% 10% -8.6%
≤90d 40 -2.8% -12.0% 40% 8% -9.3%
all 109 -2.6% -11.9% 39% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 4% -9.3%
10% -20.3% 1% -18.0%
15% -28.0% 1% -25.9%
20% -35.1% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses42 / 67
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage466d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $178 $178 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $187 −$11 -6%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $4 +$1 +15%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $34 −$3 -8%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $189 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $241 +$3 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $176 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $51 +$36 +71%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $153 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $28 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $168 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $152 −$5 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $202 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $154 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $337 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $173 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $297 +$3 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $330 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $190 −$7 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $174 −$6 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $68 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $165 +$3 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $143 −$1 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $180 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $13 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $148 +$11 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $155 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $76 +$9 +11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $4 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $162 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $162 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 15 $180 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $169 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $2,244 −$19 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $498 +$2 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $1,068 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 25 $6 $0 +5%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 19 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $137 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $40 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $72 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $47 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $58 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $93 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $94 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $14 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $12 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $30 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $168 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $21 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $186 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $3 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.16 · official $177.56 (match) · 416 history records