Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:15:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
30 0x3058…0503 crypto 505 markets active 2h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,087 (-6%) realized −$4,087 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%302W / 203L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$374
7 days−$496
14 days−$379
30 days−$379
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$4,898
sports 1% −$170
other 0% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -26.5% -33.5% 51% 43% -20.2%
≤30d 38 -23.4% -30.7% 53% 45% -17.1%
≤90d 58 -18.0% -25.8% 57% 50% -15.2%
all 505 -11.5% -20.0% 60% 50% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 50% -15.8%
10% -27.6% 34% -23.8%
15% -34.6% 22% -31.2%
20% -41.0% 13% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$89 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,087
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses302 / 203
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)505 / 505
History coverage220d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 505 Trades
no open positions (131 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $86 −$83 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $80 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $243 −$234 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $197 +$46 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $160 +$38 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $199 −$191 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $197 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $194 +$80 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $135 −$130 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $126 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $118 +$26 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $134 −$14 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $109 +$24 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $46 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $197 +$102 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $85 −$82 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $197 +$86 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $101 −$97 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $67 −$64 -96%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $169 +$96 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $107 +$65 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $171 +$38 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $144 +$27 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $153 +$86 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $184 +$114 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $115 +$70 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $114 −$111 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $105 −$101 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $163 −$157 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $164 +$102 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $94 +$70 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 06 $58 −$56 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 12 $77 −$74 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 12 $79 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 21 $8 −$3 -38%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 21 $15 −$10 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 21 $223 −$220 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 21 $171 +$54 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 20 $255 +$42 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 20 $200 +$59 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 20 $179 −$176 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 20 $301 +$83 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 20 $131 −$129 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 20 $105 +$27 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $243 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $243 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $197 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $198 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $160 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $4 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $199 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $199 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $197 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $78 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $274 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $194 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $135 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $136 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $126 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $22 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $144 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $118 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $120 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $134 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $133 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $109 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $54 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $46 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $299 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1199 history records