Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:31:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3057…9ca5 crypto 428 markets active 0h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$134 (-6%) realized −$134 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate62%265W / 163L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$148
crypto 39% −$5
other 8% +$16
politics 6% −$5
world 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 254 +1.7% -8.0% 85% 77% -9.6%
≤30d 254 +1.7% -8.0% 85% 77% -9.6%
≤90d 312 -11.1% -19.6% 73% 67% -18.4%
all 428 +0.0% -9.5% 62% 56% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 56% -15.3%
10% -18.2% 25% -23.4%
15% -26.1% 5% -30.8%
20% -33.3% 4% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$134
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses265 / 163
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)428 / 428
History coverage198d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 428 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1053 history records