Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:17:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3056…4fef sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13,746 (-34%) realized −$12,642 · open −$1,104
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%8W / 15L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,571per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$467est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,449now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,148
7 days−$8,730
14 days−$8,730
30 days−$8,895
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$13,009
other 19% −$1,676
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +8.1% -2.2% 44% 44% -35.0%
≤30d 10 -2.7% -12.0% 40% 40% -35.4%
≤90d 23 -14.9% -23.0% 35% 35% -41.7%
all 23 -14.9% -23.0% 35% 35% -41.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 35% -41.7%
10% -30.4% 35% -47.3%
15% -37.1% 35% -52.4%
20% -43.3% 35% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$2,681) neutral
Persistence
early -32% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,562 vs −$1,739 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$1,449
Realized−$12,642
Unrealized−$1,104
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses8 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$467
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage45d
Avg bet$1,571
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 28¢ 27¢ $550 $526 −$25 (-4%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 45¢ 100¢ $237 $526 +$289 (+122%)
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group C CHAOS 42¢ 50¢ $329 $397 +$68 (+21%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $1,148 $1 −$1,147 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,932 +$2,523 +86%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5,310 +$5,583 +105%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $854 −$841 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $197 +$574 +291%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,602 −$1,591 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $4,730 −$4,666 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1,253 −$1,234 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $11,653 −$11,497 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,681 +$2,418 +90%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $169 −$165 -98%
LoL: GTZ Esports vs Francesinhas (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season May 14 $132 −$129 -98%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Two Move (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs May 11 $78 +$110 +140%
Real Oviedo vs. Getafe CF: O/U 1.5 May 10 $886 −$875 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 10 $119 −$116 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 10 $583 −$573 -98%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se May 10 $140 +$147 +105%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $254 +$575 +226%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - BC Game Master May 09 $114 −$111 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 09 $227 −$223 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 07 $499 +$569 +114%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-09? May 04 $147 −$145 -98%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Brute - Map 1 Winner May 04 $82 −$81 -98%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $3,891 −$3,834 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 40¢ $105 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 40¢ $99 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 45¢ $131 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 28¢ $175 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 28¢ $234 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 29¢ $153 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 45¢ $241 6h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $294 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $302 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $284 9h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $286 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $1,890 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $2,097 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $742 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $293 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $290 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2,932 24h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 47¢ $130 32h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 48¢ $137 32h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 48¢ $137 34h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 50¢ $149 35h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 50¢ $147 35h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 50¢ $153 35h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $1,602 41h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $500 43h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $502 43h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $500 43h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $504 43h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $1,253 43h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $688 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,449.44 · official $1,449.44 (match) · 68 history records