Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:18:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
30 0x3055…5b8b crypto 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 544d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%65W / 1L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% $0
weather 22% +$1
other 8% +$1
politics 6% $0
finance 2% $0
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 36 -0.0% -9.5% 97% 0% -9.5%
all 66 +0.2% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

544d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses65 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage544d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $1.80 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 31? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 1? Jun 14 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 24? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 26? May 29 $47 $0 +0%
Will gpt-5.5-high have the best AI model on May 16, 2026? May 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on May 15? May 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 14? May 24 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 5? May 10 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? May 10 $28 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on May 3? May 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or higher on May 3? May 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 27? May 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on April 26? May 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on April 27? May 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? May 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 26? Apr 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 22? Apr 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 23? Apr 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 23? Apr 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on April 23? Apr 25 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 18? Apr 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 20? Apr 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on April 19? Apr 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 18? Apr 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 11? Apr 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 6-12? Apr 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 11? Apr 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 6-12? Apr 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 11 $105 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 on April 6? Apr 08 $129 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 20? Apr 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 05 $48 $0 +1%
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? Apr 05 $55 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 March 9-15? Mar 18 $82 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,100 in February? Mar 13 $55 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 13 $82 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January? Feb 17 $137 $0 +0%
Bill allowing Trump 3rd term passes House before June? Jun 07 $8 $0 +0%
Bank of England rate cut in May meeting? May 11 $5 $0 +1%
Ukraine lowers conscription age before May 9? May 11 $8 $0 +0%
X allowed to operate in China before May? May 06 $4 $0 +0%
Trump pauses all reciprocal tariffs other than China before Wednesday? May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Trump pauses reciprocal tariffs on EU before Wednesday? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April? Apr 07 $5 $0 +1%
Trump uses a recess appointment for Cabinet? Apr 07 $6 $0 +0%
Kanye's music pulled from Spotify before April? Apr 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the US sanction UK before April? Apr 07 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will XRP reach $1.80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $34 13d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $18 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $58 29d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $38 34d
Will Solana reach $130 in May? BUY No 100¢ $51 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $47 34d
Will gpt-5.5-high have the best AI model on May 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 46d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $48 46d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 46d
Will Solana reach $120 in May? SELL No 92¢ $26 48d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $52 54d
Will Solana reach $120 in May? BUY No 98¢ $28 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $55 56d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or higher on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $45 56d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $38 56d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $19 62d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on April 26? BUY No 100¢ $38 63d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 26? BUY No 100¢ $22 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $37 63d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $55 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $11 66d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $23 66d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 71d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $31 71d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $22 71d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $11 71d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.93 · official $81.93 (match) · 134 history records