Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:02:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3054…1442 other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 600d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate26%15W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% −$12
other 22% −$1
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% +$5
economics 3% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +16.4% +5.3% 20% 20% -1.3%
≤30d 19 -1.0% -10.5% 11% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 47 -0.4% -9.8% 23% 11% -9.3%
all 58 -0.3% -9.8% 26% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 9% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 9% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 9% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses15 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage600d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $15 $0 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $7 +$6 +83%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $72 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 13 $83 $0 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 12 $7 +$9 +114%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $145 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $75 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $69 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? May 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $139 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $73 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 01 $72 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 01 $70 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $74 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 21 $73 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $70 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $74 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $70 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $72 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $8 +$5 +70%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $12 +$7 +60%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $9 +$4 +48%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $14 +$1 +10%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March? Apr 06 $12 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 06 $12 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Mar 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $44 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $49 17h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 27h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 29h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 4d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 4d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 5d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $7 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 10d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 10d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 12d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 14d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 15d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 15d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 17d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 17d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.17 · official $62.17 (match) · 258 history records