Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3052…fa3f other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate37%14W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$3
other 33% +$1
politics 10% +$1
sports 4% $0
weather 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 8 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 8 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 38 +0.5% -9.1% 37% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 3% -9.5%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage461d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $57 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $57 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $72 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $62 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $16 −$2 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 02 $11 $0 +4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 11 $4 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Aug 11 $11 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4? Jul 04 $11 $0 +2%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 03 $12 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Jul 03 $12 −$1 -9%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio Jul 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 01 $14 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 12 $15 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Apr 07 $16 −$1 -4%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in March 2025? Mar 30 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 23? Mar 24 $16 $0 +2%
Canada election called by Sunday? Mar 24 $14 $0 +3%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Mar 23 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or below on March 21? Mar 22 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 19 $15 $0 -1%
Will Mercedes have the highest Constructor score at the Australian GP? Mar 17 $15 $0 +3%
Will 'Black Bag' gross between 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 15 $13 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $27 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $29 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $29 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $27 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $56 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $12 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $17 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $40 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $22 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $3 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $4 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $53 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $51 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $62 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $62 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $55 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $56 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $4 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $10 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 10¢ $16 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.55 · official $56.23 (match) · 114 history records