Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:39:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3052…ca02 sports 186 markets active 2h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$162 (-0%) realized −$146 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate56%102W / 79L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$949per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$716est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days−$177
14 days−$247
30 days+$682
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$3
other 1% −$239
crypto 0% −$102
world 0% +$18
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -8.6% -17.3% 54% 40% -11.0%
≤30d 45 -12.1% -20.5% 56% 33% -8.0%
≤90d 136 -18.0% -25.8% 52% 32% -10.6%
all 181 -11.7% -20.1% 56% 35% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 35% -9.7%
10% -27.7% 27% -18.3%
15% -34.7% 22% -26.2%
20% -41.1% 13% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$971) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$172 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized−$146
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses102 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$716
Open positions3
Markets (closed)181 / 186
History coverage204d
Avg bet$949
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland - Who wins the toss? Ireland 55¢ 100¢ $72 $132 +$59 (+82%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $57 $58 +$2 (+3%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $98 $21 −$77 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $380 −$223 -59%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who win Jun 19 $45 +$35 +79%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland - Who wins the toss? Jun 18 $33 +$27 +83%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 18 $5,435 +$65 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $13 +$5 +37%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $10 +$8 +88%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $240 +$2 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $1,307 +$27 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands - Who wins the toss? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 +$5 +27%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $1,092 +$238 +22%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $137 −$136 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $887 +$69 +8%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $105 +$26 +24%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $48 +$18 +38%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka - Who wi Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $79 +$59 +74%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands - Who wins the tos Jun 14 $101 −$51 -50%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $104 +$56 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 +$29 +276%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $98 −$98 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $22 −$1 -6%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $55 +$5 +8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $99 −$98 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland - Who wins the toss? Jun 13 $51 +$39 +78%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $93 +$104 +111%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka - Who wins the toss? Jun 12 $11 +$9 +79%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $49 −$48 -97%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $489 −$11 -2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -97%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $5,007 +$55 +1%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $6,091 +$277 +4%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $5,888 +$378 +6%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $485 −$483 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $1,050 +$444 +42%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $4,900 +$100 +2%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $4,643 +$157 +3%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $311 −$305 -98%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $5,081 −$15 -0%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $1,310 +$190 +14%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $5,049 +$92 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland - Who wins the toss? BUY Ireland 55¢ $67 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland - Who wins the toss? BUY Ireland 50¢ $1 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland - Who wins the toss? BUY Ireland 50¢ $5 1h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 62¢ $107 7h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 62¢ $4 7h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 62¢ $15 7h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 62¢ $2 7h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 62¢ $185 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 8h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 51¢ $153 10h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 22¢ $68 10h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who win BUY Australia 55¢ $45 11h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 4¢ $5 14h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland - Who wins the toss? BUY Scotland 54¢ $33 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL No 90¢ $16 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL No 90¢ $2 45h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 90¢ $18 46h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 99¢ $1,974 47h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 99¢ $130 47h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 99¢ $1,485 47h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 99¢ $485 47h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 99¢ $190 47h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 99¢ $190 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 98¢ $980 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 99¢ $101 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 99¢ $139 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands - Who wins the toss? BUY India 55¢ $33 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 98¢ $278 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 98¢ $49 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 98¢ $641 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.05 · official $211.05 (match) · 1324 history records