Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:27:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x304e…711a other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$455per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$320
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage5d
Avg bet$455
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $320 $320 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $501 −$5 -1%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $484 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $320 1h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $484 1h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $485 25h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $479 25h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $16 25h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $480 25h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $483 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $484 3d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $483 3d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $484 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $319.84 · official $319.84 (match) · 15 history records