Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:11:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x304d…29e9 crypto 48 markets active 10h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$127 (+2%) realized +$127 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate75%36W / 12L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$113
14 days+$105
30 days+$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -2.5% -11.8% 79% 26% -8.0%
≤30d 48 -6.7% -15.6% 75% 31% -8.2%
≤90d 48 -6.7% -15.6% 75% 31% -8.2%
all 48 -6.7% -15.6% 75% 31% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 31% -8.2%
10% -23.7% 12% -17.0%
15% -31.0% 8% -25.0%
20% -37.8% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.38 per $1 lost it wins $4.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$127
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses36 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage7d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $901 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $901 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $901 +$17 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $901 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $904 +$17 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $501 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $111 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $54 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $302 +$27 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $53 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$8 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $105 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $901 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $901 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $901 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $899 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $901 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $920 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $904 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $501 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 166 history records