Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:14:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x304a…05ec sports 1262 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$271 (-2%) realized −$271 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%378W / 837L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$164est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$297
14 days+$780
30 days+$704
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$51
crypto 4% +$47
other 2% −$29
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +51.8% +37.4% 40% 40% +30.1%
≤30d 232 +37.3% +24.2% 38% 38% +16.6%
≤90d 722 -1.1% -10.5% 31% 31% -13.6%
all 1215 +0.3% -9.3% 31% 31% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 31% -9.8%
10% -17.9% 31% -18.4%
15% -25.9% 31% -26.3%
20% -33.1% 30% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$10 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$271
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses378 / 837
Est. fees paid−$164
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1215 / 1262
History coverage136d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1215 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 23 $26 +$29 +112%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 23 $10 +$52 +509%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 23 $15 +$20 +133%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Petra Marcinko Jun 22 $19 −$5 -25%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan Jun 22 $10 +$38 +374%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Lajal vs Luka Pavlovic Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$19 +364%
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 22 $5 +$36 +711%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski Jun 21 $17 −$17 -98%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 21 $10 +$9 +90%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk Jun 21 $10 +$23 +222%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $22 −$22 -98%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos Jun 21 $10 +$15 +145%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $15 +$93 +606%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 +$25 +227%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $10 +$18 +172%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $27 −$26 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu Jun 20 $7 +$12 +170%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 20 $10 +$39 +374%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $9 +$32 +344%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $5 +$10 +188%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $8 +$46 +561%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $7 +$10 +140%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 19 $8 +$17 +210%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $34 +$57 +170%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $14 +$38 +266%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up $1 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Dallas Wings 100¢ $56 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 11¢ $5 3h
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Dallas Wings 33¢ $6 4h
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Dallas Wings 54¢ $10 4h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 32¢ $10 4h
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Dallas Wings 52¢ $10 5h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 100¢ $62 5h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 16¢ $10 5h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 14¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2813 history records