Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:00:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x304a…07dd
crypto · 44 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$13 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$51
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses14 / 26
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage144d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 4 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 13? No 57¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 9? No 12¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 30? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 20? No 13¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 17? No 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 30? No 21¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 8? No 23¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 2? No 32¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 28? No 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 12? No 7¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 27? No 12¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 15? No 2¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 22? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 26? No 3¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 20? No 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 18? No 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 29? No 15¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 26? No 17¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 16? No 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 12? No 3¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 20? No 10¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 20? Feb 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 20? Feb 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $10 +$10 +96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 18? Feb 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 17? Feb 18 $10 +$9 +89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 16? Feb 16 $5 +$15 +317%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 16? Feb 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 15? Feb 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 13? Feb 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 13? Feb 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 12? Feb 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 12? Feb 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $33 −$17 -51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 12? Feb 11 $40 −$16 -41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 9? Feb 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 8? Feb 07 $38 −$20 -52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 7? Feb 05 $10 +$33 +346%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 11? Feb 05 $10 +$35 +354%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 6? Feb 05 $18 +$10 +55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3? Feb 03 $32 +$61 +192%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 2? Feb 02 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1? Feb 01 $24 +$63 +260%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 31? Jan 31 $21 +$19 +91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 31? Jan 31 $10 +$8 +80%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 30? Jan 30 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 30? Jan 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 29? Jan 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 28? Jan 28 $20 +$18 +92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 28? Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 27? Jan 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 26? Jan 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 26? Jan 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 25? Jan 25 $14 +$109 +758%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 24? Jan 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 22? Jan 21 $160 −$80 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $29 +$55 +189%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $30 +$12 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 20? Jan 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 20? Jan 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 94% −$9
other 6% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 20? BUY No 10¢ $9 113d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 20? BUY No 11¢ $10 113d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 18? BUY No 51¢ $10 115d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 18? BUY No 6¢ $10 115d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 17? BUY No 7¢ $10 116d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 17? BUY No 53¢ $10 116d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 16? BUY No 24¢ $1 117d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 16? BUY No 24¢ $3 117d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 16? BUY No 8¢ $10 117d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 15? BUY No 2¢ $3 118d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 15? BUY No 3¢ $8 118d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 13? BUY No 57¢ $20 120d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 13? BUY No 24¢ $15 120d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 12? BUY No 7¢ $2 121d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 12? BUY No 7¢ $0 121d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 12? BUY No 7¢ $1 121d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 12? BUY No 2¢ $1 122d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 12? BUY No 2¢ $0 122d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 11? BUY No 1¢ $5 122d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 12? BUY No 7¢ $20 122d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 12? BUY No 19¢ $10 122d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 12? BUY No 2¢ $10 122d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 9? BUY No 12¢ $12 124d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 9? BUY No 12¢ $1 124d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 8? BUY No 23¢ $22 125d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 12? SELL No 9¢ $24 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 40 +9.6% -0.8% 35% 35% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 35% -9.1%
10% -10.3% 35% -17.8%
15% -19.0% 35% -25.8%
20% -26.9% 32% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.46 · official $51.53 (match) · 116 history records