Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:35:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x304a…e2e9 other 261 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$87 (-0%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%14W / 247L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$29
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$46
sports 23% −$24
politics 9% −$8
culture 7% −$7
crypto 5% −$5
economics 4% −$7
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 185 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 261 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses14 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)261 / 261
History coverage134d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 261 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $86 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $291 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $427 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $263 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $304 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $277 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $214 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $624 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $191 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $732 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $277 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $111 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $341 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $318 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $466 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $168 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $221 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $345 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $226 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $154 $0 +0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $208 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $770 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $948 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $69 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $465 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $192 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $345 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 07 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $348 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $221 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $264 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $283 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $195 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 1h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 2h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 4h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 6h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $17 6h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $17 8h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 10h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 12h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 13h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 14h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 16h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 17h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 19h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 21h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $51 22h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 24h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $51 25h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $51 27h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 29h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 31h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 35h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $52 37h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 41h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 42h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $8 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1417 history records