Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:49:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
30 0x3049…3210 crypto 2052 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (106 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,217 (-48%) realized −$1,215 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate70%1323W / 567L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day105.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$104
14 days+$146
30 days+$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (106 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 624 +12.9% +2.2% 63% 63% +3.4%
≤30d 1890 +7.1% -3.1% 70% 46% -3.3%
≤90d 1890 +7.1% -3.1% 70% 46% -3.3%
all 1890 +7.1% -3.1% 70% 46% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.1% 46% -3.3%
10% ← realistic here -12.4% 44% -12.5%
15% -20.8% 42% -21.0%
20% -28.6% 40% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,215
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses1323 / 567
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1890 / 2052
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day105.9
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1890 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Down 45¢ 8¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +166%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.38 · official $0.78 (match) · 3500 history records