Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:27:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
30 0x3045…9c3c other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 568d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14,005 (-64%) realized −$13,998 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%6W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$546per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$388now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$183
7 days+$183
14 days+$113
30 days+$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$13,908
sports 6% −$751
world 5% +$785
crypto 0% +$19
finance 0% −$24
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +193.1% +165.2% 50% 50% +38.1%
≤30d 3 +111.1% +91.0% 33% 33% +11.7%
≤90d 29 -46.8% -51.9% 7% 7% -79.8%
all 33 -12.9% -21.2% 18% 18% -74.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 18% -74.1%
10% -28.7% 18% -76.5%
15% -35.6% 18% -78.8%
20% -41.9% 18% -80.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -73% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +23% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$247 vs −$569 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

568d coverage
Net worth$388
Realized−$13,998
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses6 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)33 / 40
History coverage568d
Avg bet$546
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Over 50¢ 40¢ $200 $162 −$38 (-19%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $50 $69 +$19 (+39%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $45 $63 +$18 (+41%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $297 −$14 -5%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Jun 21 $50 +$197 +391%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $133 −$70 -53%
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5,698 −$5,418 -95%
Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $282 −$270 -96%
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $603 −$302 -50%
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3,060 −$2,101 -69%
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $4,069 −$4,000 -98%
Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 15 $177 −$101 -57%
Will France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $742 −$720 -97%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $585 −$276 -47%
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 14 $502 −$484 -96%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 10 $206 −$67 -33%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 18 $19 −$9 -51%
Trump out as President before 2027? Apr 18 $20 −$1 -6%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Apr 18 $110 −$65 -59%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $784 −$81 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 09 $100 +$352 +352%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 05 $2,213 −$2 -0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 03 $215 −$215 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Berachain launch a token in December? Mar 24 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Hornets vs. Wizards: O/U 226.5 Mar 24 $490 −$490 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5) Mar 24 $300 −$300 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? Feb 28 $100 +$270 +270%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $135 +$451 +334%
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026? Feb 28 $100 +$202 +202%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $10 +$13 +126%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U BUY 19¢ $32 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $203 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $233 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $246 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both BUY 20¢ $50 34h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $50 34h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score AND Will Morocco win on 2026 BUY 33¢ $53 47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 4d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $63 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $46 16d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 16d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 16d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 16d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $133 26d
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $93 36d
Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $37 36d
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,430 36d
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $310 36d
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $309 36d
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,019 36d
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,021 36d
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,019 36d
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $400 37d
Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? BUY Yes 10¢ $105 37d
Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $219 37d
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,015 37d
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $2,032 37d
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,015 37d
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $516 37d
Will France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $331 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $388.34 · official $388.57 (match) · 154 history records