Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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30 0x3045…8f78 sports 1932 markets active 2h ago coverage 320d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 319d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$48,071 (-7%) realized −$48,013 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%1023W / 896L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$349per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$2,058est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$672now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15,104
7 days−$13,333
14 days−$10,673
30 days−$10,145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$3,360
other 21% −$11,013
crypto 9% −$20,853
world 1% −$70
politics 0% +$25
tech 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -17.2% -25.1% 43% 41% -58.6%
≤30d 269 +2.4% -7.3% 58% 57% -20.8%
≤90d 983 -7.6% -16.4% 54% 53% -18.7%
all 1919 -6.1% -15.0% 53% 53% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 53% -15.4%
10% -23.2% 50% -23.5%
15% -30.6% 43% -30.9%
20% -37.4% 33% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$248 vs −$332 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$672
Realized−$48,013
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses1023 / 896
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$2,058
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1919 / 1932
History coverage320d ⚠
Avg bet$349
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1919 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 52¢ $330 $296 −$34 (-10%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IEM Cologne: G2 vs. FURIA Jun 17 $2,344 −$2,344 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Tigers Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $857 −$857 -100%
IEM Cologne: The MongolZ vs. Natus Vincere Jun 17 $1,045 −$1,045 -100%
IEM Cologne: Astralis vs. FURIA Jun 17 $393 −$393 -100%
Twins vs. Dodgers Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Reds vs. Mets Jun 17 $914 −$914 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 2PM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 2PM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 2AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
IEM Cologne: Falcons vs. FURIA Jun 17 $840 −$840 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 2AM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 4AM ET Jun 17 $987 −$987 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $218 −$218 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 5AM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 3AM ET Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 1AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 11AM ET Jun 17 $392 −$392 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 3PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Orioles vs. Guardians Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
UEFA Women’s Euro: France vs. Germany (To Advance) Jun 17 $1,736 −$1,809 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 8AM ET Jun 17 $569 −$569 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3AM ET Jun 17 $2,599 −$2,599 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 2AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $924 +$224 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $606 +$289 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$98 +97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $265 +$18 +7%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $303 +$180 +59%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $152 +$136 +89%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 +$116 +114%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $202 +$96 +48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $162 +$128 +79%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$141 +276%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $253 +$150 +59%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $253 +$156 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $252 +$69 +27%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $201 +$58 +29%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $176 +$60 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $202 +$80 +40%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$113 +74%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 +$134 +873%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $503 +$147 +29%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $405 +$261 +64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $21 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $111 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 13h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $504 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $223 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $924 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $895 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 39h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $665 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $303 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $203 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $202 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end BUY 19¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 15¢ $44 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $102 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 68¢ $239 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $483 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 62¢ $303 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $163 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $288 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $217 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 52¢ $152 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $298 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 24¢ $102 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 68¢ $202 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $671.76 · official $671.76 (match) · 3500 history records