Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:28:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x3042…26ee
sports · 273 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$37 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$35 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$15
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses102 / 154
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions17
Markets (closed)256 / 273
History coverage95d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 17 History 256 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$2
14 days−$0
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+46%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 26¢ 27¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 52¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? No 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yuan Katerina Siniakova 88¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tom Homan leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 43¢ 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-53%)
DOJ releases Biden ghostwriter tapes by June 30? Yes 74¢ 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 67¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 13 $6 $0 -6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $1 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -11%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 13 $1 $0 -14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -11%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -5%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 44% in 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -5%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +54%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +57%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -9%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 +21%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 -43%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Miguel Damas Jun 11 $1 +$1 +119%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +23%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1 $0 -13%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $1 $0 -38%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $1 +$1 +67%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 −$1 -62%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $1 $0 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 40% −$5
other 27% −$12
world 10% −$3
politics 9% −$13
crypto 9% $0
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 0m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 5m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $1 10m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 26m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $1 28m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Katerina Siniakova 88¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu SELL Katerina Siniakova 87¢ $2 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 51¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Katerina Siniakova 88¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Katerina Siniakova 88¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 51¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu SELL Katerina Siniakova 87¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Katerina Siniakova 88¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 51¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Katerina Siniakova 88¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu SELL Katerina Siniakova 87¢ $3 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 51¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Katerina Siniakova 88¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Katerina Siniakova 88¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Katerina Siniakova 88¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -2.2% -11.5% 44% 37% -11.4%
≤30d 151 -4.5% -13.6% 42% 36% -14.1%
≤90d 251 -9.7% -18.3% 40% 29% -18.8%
all 256 -9.8% -18.4% 40% 29% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 29% -18.9%
10% -26.2% 21% -26.6%
15% -33.3% 16% -33.7%
20% -39.8% 13% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.35 · official $15.35 (match) · 650 history records