Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:30:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
30 0x3041…4eff world 98 markets active 0h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate41%39W / 56L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$9
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$25
other 16% −$7
politics 15% +$1
sports 5% +$4
economics 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.0% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 33 +66.7% +50.8% 48% 9% -8.8%
≤90d 79 +28.1% +15.9% 41% 5% -9.1%
all 95 +23.0% +11.2% 41% 8% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.2% 8% -9.2%
10% +0.6% 8% -17.9%
15% -9.1% 6% -25.8%
20% -18.0% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +45% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses39 / 56
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)95 / 98
History coverage536d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 92¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $182 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $68 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $68 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $63 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $66 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $107 −$1 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $195 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $56 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $27 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $67 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $66 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $8 −$2 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $170 +$9 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $148 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $104 −$2 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $71 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $71 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $50 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $99 +$13 +13%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $182 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $144 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $159 +$3 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $146 −$1 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $63 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $57 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $121 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $2 +$3 +175%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $89 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 25 $2 $0 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $33 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $8 $0 -6%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 18 $2 $0 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $48 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $8 −$1 -13%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $46 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $55 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $4 $0 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $45 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $91 +$1 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $40 24m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $26 24m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $66 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $19 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $68 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $8 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $23 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $37 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $68 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $68 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 92¢ $26 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 92¢ $39 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 90¢ $63 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $39 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $28 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $33 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $34 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $12 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $42 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $4 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $45 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $14 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $1 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $65 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.30 · official $0.00 · 470 history records