Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:08:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x303f…3a91 other 8 markets active 6h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-3%) realized −$7 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$670now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$11
crypto 26% −$7
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$670
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)2 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $181 $174 −$7 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $120 $125 +$5 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $83 $101 +$19 (+22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $88 $63 −$25 (-29%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 12h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 12h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $154 31h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $62 31h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $123 36h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $185 36h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $85 45h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $90 45h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $669.87 · official $669.88 (match) · 12 history records