Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:14:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x303d…607d
crypto · 19 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$75 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$75 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses15 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage4d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$75
14 days−$75
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $76 −$17 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$3 +10%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $95 −$63 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 79% −$13
politics 21% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 3h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $34 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -7.9% -16.7% 79% 16% -20.8%
≤30d 19 -7.9% -16.7% 79% 16% -20.8%
≤90d 19 -7.9% -16.7% 79% 16% -20.8%
all 19 -7.9% -16.7% 79% 16% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 16% -20.8%
10% -24.7% 5% -28.4%
15% -31.9% 5% -35.3%
20% -38.6% 0% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records