Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:06:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x303b…4017 sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$235 (-3%) realized −$235 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate81%26W / 6L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$251
crypto 31% +$2
other 4% −$71
finance 1% $0
world 1% $0
politics 0% +$88
tech 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 -4.0% -13.2% 89% 33% -19.3%
all 32 +4.1% -5.9% 81% 31% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 31% -11.9%
10% -14.9% 25% -20.4%
15% -23.1% 9% -28.1%
20% -30.6% 6% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$162 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$235
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses26 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage197d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? Jun 02 $69 $0 +0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $375 −$372 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Kor May 19 $317 +$59 +18%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner May 14 $271 +$43 +16%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 14 $215 +$59 +27%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $215 $0 +0%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $215 $0 +0%
Magic vs. Raptors Mar 30 $211 +$4 +2%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 19 $211 $0 +0%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 22 $32 +$88 +270%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Feb 22 $1,461 −$324 -22%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner Feb 14 $650 −$150 -23%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 4 Winner Feb 14 $732 +$196 +27%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Feb 07 $285 +$92 +32%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Feb 07 $299 +$89 +30%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on February 5? Feb 07 $260 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 5? Feb 07 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 07 $72 −$72 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jan 23 $100 +$32 +32%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseveranc Jan 23 $100 +$38 +38%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jan 23 $48 −$48 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jan 23 $40 +$32 +80%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 7? Jan 08 $782 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 02 $51 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? Jan 02 $67 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 02 $86 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $188 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $981 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $59 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? BUY No 100¢ $54 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $43 28d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? BUY No 100¢ $69 28d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In BUY Weibo Gaming 72¢ $375 32d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Kor BUY Hanwha Life Esports 84¢ $317 37d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 86¢ $271 42d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $215 43d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 100¢ $215 66d
76ers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 100¢ $215 79d
Magic vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 98¢ $211 87d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $211 98d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 100¢ $1,135 124d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 48¢ $326 124d
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 4 Winner BUY LNG Esports 25¢ $207 134d
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 4 Winner BUY LNG Esports 25¢ $25 134d
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 54¢ $500 134d
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 30¢ $200 134d
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 29¢ $1 134d
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 29¢ $57 134d
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 29¢ $82 134d
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 29¢ $3 134d
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 29¢ $2 134d
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY LNG Esports 61¢ $305 134d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY No 27¢ $32 134d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 23¢ $82 138d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 23¢ $3 138d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 53¢ $200 138d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner BUY Team WE 23¢ $89 138d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 54¢ $210 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.94 · official $112.94 (match) · 76 history records