Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:03:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x303a…b47d crypto 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (195 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$24 (+2%) realized +$22 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate75%41W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day195.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$147
other 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (195 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +0.6% -9.0% 75% 58% -20.0%
≤30d 55 +0.6% -9.0% 75% 58% -20.0%
≤90d 55 +0.6% -9.0% 75% 58% -20.0%
all 55 +0.6% -9.0% 75% 58% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover195.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 58% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 27% -27.6%
15% -25.6% 15% -34.6%
20% -32.9% 4% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$16 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses41 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day195.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 25¢ 68¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+174%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $82 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $112 −$80 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $362 −$44 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $61 +$12 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $313 −$54 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$20 -89%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$12 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $44 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $62 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$8 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $22 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $21 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.74 · official $2.74 (match) · 226 history records