Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:10:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x303a…3193 crypto 973 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (188 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$24 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate83%803W / 169L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day188.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$138
7 days−$353
14 days−$379
30 days−$379
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$413
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (188 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 764 -4.6% -13.7% 85% 15% -10.4%
≤30d 972 -5.0% -14.1% 83% 13% -10.4%
≤90d 972 -5.0% -14.1% 83% 13% -10.4%
all 972 -5.0% -14.1% 83% 13% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover188.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 13% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 7% -18.9%
15% -29.8% 3% -26.8%
20% -36.7% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$22 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses803 / 169
Open positions1
Markets (closed)972 / 973
History coverage11d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day188.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 972 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Up 73¢ 26¢ $51 $18 −$33 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$48 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$23 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$25 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$51 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$23 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $45 +$19 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $48 +$21 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$51 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$10 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $52 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $52 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $50 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.96 · official $40.49 · 2883 history records