Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3038…aac9 other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 605d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate22%12W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$344per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 72% −$13
politics 21% −$12
other 5% −$34
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% −$19
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 +4.6% -5.3% 12% 6% -8.2%
≤90d 41 -9.6% -18.2% 17% 10% -12.9%
all 54 -7.3% -16.1% 22% 7% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 7% -9.9%
10% -24.2% 7% -18.5%
15% -31.5% 7% -26.4%
20% -38.2% 7% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses12 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage605d
Avg bet$344
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $85 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $8 $0 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $7 +$5 +76%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $64 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $63 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 08 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $65 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $73 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $73 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $72 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $68 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $67 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $137 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $67 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $69 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $73 $0 -0%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $3 +$3 +86%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $4 +$2 +70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $11 +$8 +76%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 06 $79 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $79 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 06 $13,511 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $19 $0 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 15 $24 +$2 +9%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $14 −$1 -4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $3 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 9h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 10h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 34h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 38h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 2d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 6d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $8 8d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $8 8d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $10 9d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 56¢ $7 9d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 15d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 15d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 16d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 16d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 17d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 17d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 24d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 24d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $13 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.95 · official $41.95 (match) · 289 history records