Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:20:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
30 0x3037…0953 crypto 156 markets active 6d ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-2%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate57%89W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$75
finance 9% +$12
world 3% +$3
sports 1% −$7
other 1% −$5
politics 0% +$1
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -14.1% -22.3% 53% 29% -7.7%
≤30d 17 -14.1% -22.3% 53% 29% -7.7%
≤90d 149 -9.7% -18.3% 56% 48% -13.0%
all 156 -9.2% -17.8% 57% 47% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 47% -13.0%
10% -25.7% 39% -21.3%
15% -32.9% 31% -28.9%
20% -39.4% 22% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses89 / 67
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)156 / 156
History coverage143d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 156 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$11 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$5 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$12 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $63 +$18 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $32 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will FC Porto vs. FC Famalicão end in a draw? Apr 04 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 04 $23 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 04 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 04 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 04 $30 +$17 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 04 $15 −$6 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 04 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Apr 04 $61 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 04 $6 $0 +4%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Romania end in a draw? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 30 $7 −$5 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 30 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 30 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 30 $5 +$6 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 30 $10 +$2 +22%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 26 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Romania win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $3 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 26 $10 −$9 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 26 $10 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 26 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 26 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 26 $10 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 26 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 26 $5 +$3 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 390 history records