Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:47:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
30 0x3036…1745 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$279 (-21%) realized −$249 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%16W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$54
sports 28% −$256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 7 -24.1% -31.3% 43% 43% -0.2%
all 32 -18.1% -25.9% 50% 47% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 47% -29.0%
10% -33.0% 41% -35.8%
15% -39.5% 38% -42.0%
20% -45.4% 25% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$38 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$249
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage189d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 26¢ $50 $20 −$30 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 −$5 -92%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $15 +$14 +91%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $9 +$9 +91%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $37 +$15 +42%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 08 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Valencia CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? Jan 24 $200 −$194 -97%
Will Burnley FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Jan 24 $22 +$4 +18%
Will Fulham FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Jan 24 $100 −$92 -92%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $100 +$59 +59%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $20 −$12 -60%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 04 $50 +$43 +85%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Jan 01 $52 +$26 +50%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $50 −$21 -42%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $50 +$20 +41%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $50 +$28 +56%
Will Elche CF win on 2025-12-21? Dec 22 $25 +$16 +64%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $95 +$13 +13%
Will Brentford FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 21 $25 +$27 +108%
Will SS Lazio win on 2025-12-20? Dec 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? Dec 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $30 +$31 +104%
Will Fulham FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 14 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 14 $50 +$5 +9%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-13? Dec 14 $30 +$11 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 36d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 45d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 45d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 38¢ $9 53d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $29 62d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 62d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 62d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $18 66d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 66d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 69d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $17 69d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? SELL Yes 42¢ $16 69d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 69d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? BUY Yes 56¢ $76 132d
Will Valencia CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 147d
Will Valencia CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $200 147d
Will Burnley FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 147d
Will Burnley FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $22 147d
Will Fulham FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 147d
Will Fulham FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $100 147d
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-01-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $159 147d
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-01-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $100 147d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-07? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 164d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 164d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-07? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 164d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-07? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 164d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-07? BUY Yes 43¢ $30 164d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $78 170d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 170d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.88 · official $26.90 · 60 history records