Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:49:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3036…15c2 sports 1419 markets active 1h ago coverage 181d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 181d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$532 (-1%) realized −$502 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%633W / 783L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$152
14 days−$110
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$229
other 45% −$917
world 1% +$125
crypto 0% −$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -10.3% -18.9% 38% 38% -33.5%
≤30d 27 -7.6% -16.4% 41% 41% -25.0%
≤90d 125 -68.4% -71.4% 14% 14% -93.6%
all 1416 -1.0% -10.4% 45% 45% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 45% -10.3%
10% -19.0% 44% -18.9%
15% -26.8% 43% -26.7%
20% -34.0% 40% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -93% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$46 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$502
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses633 / 783
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1416 / 1419
History coverage181d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1416 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 38¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Roberto Alvarado: 1+ goals Yes 22¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 402 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $25 −$19 -77%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $15 +$25 +165%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 19 $10 +$11 +109%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +60%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $39 −$38 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $62 +$37 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $30 +$25 +83%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $35 −$35 -99%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 +$19 +188%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $19 +$16 +86%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $11 +$14 +122%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 13 $5 +$11 +206%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $5 −$2 -30%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $35 −$18 -51%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $25 +$18 +70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $35 −$21 -60%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $66 +$43 +65%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Apr 08 $33 −$32 -98%
Kraken vs. Jets Apr 07 $15 +$18 +122%
Blues vs. Ducks Apr 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Club Alianza Atlético win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Red Star FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $18 −$18 -100%
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Al Hazem SC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-03-08? Apr 03 $80 −$80 -100%
Spread: Ducks (-1.5) Apr 03 $80 −$80 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-18? Apr 03 $81 −$81 -100%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-02-26? Apr 03 $83 −$83 -100%
Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5) Apr 03 $85 −$85 -100%
Senators vs. Flames Apr 03 $85 −$85 -100%
Flames vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5 Apr 03 $85 −$85 -100%
KHL: Admiral Vladivostok vs. Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk Apr 03 $85 −$85 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 03 $85 −$85 -100%
Blues vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5 Apr 03 $90 −$90 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Lightning Apr 03 $90 −$90 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 03 $90 −$90 -100%
Spread: Capitals (-1.5) Apr 03 $90 −$90 -100%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to Score Apr 03 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Ceramica Cleopatra Club win on 2026-02-24? Apr 03 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-03-08? Apr 03 $90 −$90 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $25 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 10¢ $6 1h
Roberto Alvarado: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Roberto Alvarado: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $3 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 4h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $10 4h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $15 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $39 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 3d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $31 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $62 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $15 5d
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $10 5d
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $30 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $25 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $35 5d
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $20 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $0 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $8 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $3 6d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 53¢ $19 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 11¢ $4 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 29¢ $17 6d
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 22¢ $10 6d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $5 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 3500 history records