Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:22:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x3034…db5c other 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate13%12W / 82L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$8
politics 20% −$7
sports 10% +$6
world 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 +7.6% -2.6% 23% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 93 +4.5% -5.5% 13% 10% -9.6%
all 94 +4.5% -5.5% 13% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 10% -9.6%
10% -14.5% 10% -18.2%
15% -22.8% 10% -26.1%
20% -30.4% 9% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×6.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses12 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)94 / 96
History coverage92d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $420 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $275 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 05 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 05 $101 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 28 $32 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $265 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $420 $0 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $3 +$3 +100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $445 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $399 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $232 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $226 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $421 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $213 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 04 $228 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 03 $219 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $845 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $238 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $215 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $236 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $458 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $413 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $226 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $451 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $469 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $223 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $464 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $225 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $231 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 12 $230 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 11 $226 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 11 $241 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $241 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $226 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 09 $224 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $7 +$5 +72%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $9 +$7 +79%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $15 +$12 +83%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $364 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $110 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $79 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 10d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 10d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $40 12d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $40 13d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $32 21d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $32 21d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $60 22d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 22d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 22d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 23d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $101 25d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 26d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 26d
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 50¢ $3 27d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 27d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 28d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 29d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 29d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 29d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 29d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $223 32d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $223 33d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $232 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.07 · official $189.07 (match) · 305 history records