Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:46:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x302c…abce weather 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$400 (+3%) realized +$605 · open −$205
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 33L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$672now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$4,597
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -2.8% -12.1% 43% 26% -3.1%
≤30d 47 -29.3% -36.0% 30% 19% -44.8%
≤90d 47 -29.3% -36.0% 30% 19% -44.8%
all 47 -29.3% -36.0% 30% 19% -44.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.0% 19% -44.8%
10% ← realistic here -42.1% 15% -50.0%
15% -47.7% 13% -54.9%
20% -52.8% 9% -59.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -53% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
15.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$171 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$672
Realized+$605
Unrealized−$205
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage29d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? Yes 18¢ 34¢ $155 $295 +$140 (+90%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? Yes 86¢ 52¢ $470 $283 −$187 (-40%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? Yes 96¢ 30¢ $155 $47 −$107 (-69%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? Yes 70¢ 38¢ $83 $46 −$37 (-45%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 23? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 22? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 30? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 27? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 26? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 27? Jun 22 $4 −$43 -1233%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 26? Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 22 $38 −$9 -24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? Jun 22 $20 +$23 +116%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? Jun 22 $411 +$155 +38%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 22 $7 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $556 +$19 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? Jun 22 $30 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $97 −$46 -47%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $6 +$25 +388%
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 23? Jun 21 $25 −$5 -19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? Jun 21 $65 −$5 -8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 23? Jun 21 $131 −$18 -13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $129 −$3 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $200 +$16 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? Jun 21 $33 +$5 +15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 22? Jun 21 $488 +$36 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $166 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $234 +$69 +29%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $37 −$14 -39%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1,828 −$1,811 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $36 −$13 -36%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $220 −$97 -44%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $215 −$213 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1,094 −$1,060 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $14 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $641 −$218 -34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $881 −$324 -37%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $295 −$188 -64%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 1? Jun 01 $254 −$241 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 31? Jun 01 $872 +$631 +72%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 31? Jun 01 $864 +$114 +13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 31? Jun 01 $172 +$17 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 31? May 31 $736 −$734 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 1? May 31 $117 −$137 -118%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 1? May 30 $5 −$7 -139%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25? May 25 $105 −$118 -112%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25? May 25 $204 −$113 -55%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25? May 25 $68 −$68 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 25? May 25 $31 −$6 -20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 25? May 25 $25 −$20 -81%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 24? May 25 $42 +$37 +87%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 24? May 24 $87 −$55 -63%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 24? May 24 $16 −$6 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 96¢ $8 1m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 1m
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? SELL Yes 18¢ $29 1m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 96¢ $8 20m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 96¢ $136 23m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? SELL Yes 70¢ $4 28m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 79¢ $39 28m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 31m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? SELL Yes 97¢ $52 31m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? SELL Yes 68¢ $9 34m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 68¢ $28 35m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? SELL Yes 65¢ $12 35m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 77¢ $43 36m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 61¢ $16 37m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 76¢ $11 37m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 37m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 54¢ $13 39m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? SELL Yes 95¢ $267 39m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 72¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 72¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 72¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 79¢ $71 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? SELL Yes 73¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 79¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 79¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 79¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $671.76 · official $671.76 (match) · 1033 history records