Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:07:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x302b…e4be other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,815 (-7%) realized −$2,073 · open +$258
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,473per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$5,512now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,793
7 days−$2,073
14 days−$1,898
30 days−$1,898
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$1,364
sports 14% −$277
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +5.4% -4.7% 64% 64% -18.9%
≤30d 13 +0.5% -9.1% 62% 62% -17.7%
≤90d 13 +0.5% -9.1% 62% 62% -17.7%
all 13 +0.5% -9.1% 62% 62% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 62% -17.7%
10% -17.8% 62% -25.6%
15% -25.7% 62% -32.8%
20% -33.0% 23% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$966 vs −$1,925 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$5,512
Realized−$2,073
Unrealized+$258
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions5
Markets (closed)13 / 18
History coverage7d
Avg bet$1,473
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $2,501 $2,601 +$100 (+4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $1,400 $1,420 +$20 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $700 $747 +$47 (+7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $504 $598 +$94 (+19%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 28¢ 27¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,593 +$3,311 +128%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $220 −$215 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,376 +$572 +42%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,016 +$1,068 +105%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,519 −$1,500 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2,407 −$2,352 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,389 −$5,358 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,022 +$1,219 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,009 +$400 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,515 +$724 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $796 +$374 +47%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,014 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 27¢ $10 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 27¢ $10 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 27¢ $10 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 27¢ $10 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 27¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 32¢ $16 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 56¢ $912 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $305 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $610 19h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 28¢ $102 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 21¢ $205 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,320 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $509 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,376 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $508 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $508 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $509 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $1,519 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $991 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $291 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $661 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $511 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $765 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,512.41 · official $5,512.41 (match) · 71 history records