Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:52:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3027…3594 sports 229 markets active 0h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$600 (-3%) realized −$598 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%125W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$151est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$51
14 days+$159
30 days−$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$799
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +22.0% +10.4% 100% 100% +8.9%
≤30d 57 -9.1% -17.8% 49% 42% -15.7%
≤90d 219 -16.2% -24.2% 54% 48% -14.9%
all 228 -11.9% -20.3% 55% 50% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 50% -13.9%
10% -27.9% 39% -22.2%
15% -34.9% 26% -29.7%
20% -41.3% 15% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$40 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$598
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses125 / 103
Est. fees paid−$151
Open positions1
Markets (closed)228 / 229
History coverage153d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Karmine Corp 83¢ 81¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $50 +$15 +30%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $101 +$24 +24%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $100 +$12 +12%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $82 −$80 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $202 +$74 +37%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $96 +$124 +129%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $28 +$12 +43%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $211 −$210 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $324 +$1 +0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $291 +$40 +14%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $41 +$40 +99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $100 +$10 +10%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $31 +$127 +410%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $71 +$39 +56%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $34 +$14 +43%
LoL: Galions vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $71 +$19 +26%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $100 +$5 +5%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $24 −$12 -49%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $10 −$8 -77%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $11 +$7 +67%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs CITA Kaizen (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $9 +$4 +40%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S Jun 08 $7 +$2 +32%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $10 +$6 +57%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $10 +$11 +105%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $46 −$26 -56%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $19 +$27 +139%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $14 +$6 +42%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $10 +$4 +41%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $7 +$3 +39%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner May 31 $20 −$13 -62%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 31 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $71 −$71 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $86 −$84 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $101 −$53 -52%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Galions - Game 3 Winner May 29 $30 +$7 +24%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Galions - Game 2 Winner May 29 $36 −$10 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 83¢ $101 13m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $66 14m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $125 15m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 76¢ $50 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $112 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 89¢ $100 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 80¢ $101 7h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 24¢ $82 13d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner SELL Galions 100¢ $276 13d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 65¢ $101 13d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 82¢ $101 13d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 12¢ $10 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 43¢ $96 13d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 80¢ $211 14d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner BUY Solary 70¢ $5 14d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner BUY Solary 70¢ $23 14d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 39¢ $20 14d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 12¢ $10 15d
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY Forsaken 36¢ $20 15d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 94¢ $301 15d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 10¢ $6 15d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 39¢ $0 15d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 39¢ $23 15d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $331 15d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 95¢ $250 15d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 59¢ $40 15d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $81 15d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $41 15d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 51¢ $20 15d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C SELL Galions 94¢ $110 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.18 · official $98.19 (match) · 538 history records