Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:02:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
30 0x3021…3b3d sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$653 (-5%) realized −$649 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$715per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$643
politics 1% −$3
economics 1% +$1
world 1% −$8
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -5.8% -14.8% 50% 0% -20.7%
all 15 +2.8% -7.0% 53% 40% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 40% -14.5%
10% -15.9% 40% -22.6%
15% -24.0% 40% -30.1%
20% -31.5% 33% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$702 vs −$895 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized−$649
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage232d
Avg bet$715
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 84¢ 82¢ $168 $165 −$3 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $58 $57 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17? Apr 09 $61 −$8 -13%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 09 $2 $0 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Mar 04 $129 +$1 +0%
Magic vs. Knicks Dec 07 $423 −$423 -100%
Jets vs. Canadiens Dec 03 $3,300 −$3,300 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights Dec 03 $1,420 +$580 +41%
Lightning vs. Islanders Dec 03 $611 +$689 +113%
Trail Blazers vs. Raptors Dec 03 $455 −$455 -100%
Cardinals vs. Buccaneers Nov 30 $444 −$444 -100%
Bulls vs. Pacers Nov 30 $1,280 +$1,920 +150%
Celtics vs. Timberwolves Nov 29 $756 −$756 -100%
Packers vs. Lions Nov 29 $600 +$900 +150%
Stars vs. Oilers Nov 27 $704 +$896 +127%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 15 $880 −$880 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 15 $870 +$630 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 1h
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 80d
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17? SELL Yes 55¢ $15 80d
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17? SELL Yes 55¢ $1 80d
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17? SELL Yes 55¢ $10 80d
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17? SELL Yes 55¢ $1 80d
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17? SELL Yes 55¢ $20 80d
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 80d
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, SELL Yes $2 80d
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, BUY Yes $2 80d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 84¢ $168 93d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 100¢ $129 151d
Magic vs. Knicks BUY Magic 47¢ $423 203d
Jets vs. Canadiens BUY Jets 55¢ $227 206d
Jets vs. Canadiens BUY Jets 55¢ $3 206d
Jets vs. Canadiens BUY Jets 55¢ $21 206d
Jets vs. Canadiens BUY Jets 55¢ $21 206d
Jets vs. Canadiens BUY Jets 55¢ $16 206d
Jets vs. Canadiens BUY Jets 55¢ $3 206d
Jets vs. Canadiens BUY Jets 55¢ $485 206d
Jets vs. Canadiens BUY Jets 55¢ $16 206d
Jets vs. Canadiens BUY Jets 55¢ $30 206d
Jets vs. Canadiens BUY Jets 55¢ $1 206d
Jets vs. Canadiens BUY Jets 55¢ $33 206d
Jets vs. Canadiens BUY Jets 55¢ $2,444 206d
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 71¢ $620 207d
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 71¢ $4 207d
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 71¢ $12 207d
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 71¢ $12 207d
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 71¢ $3 207d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.50 · official $222.50 (match) · 188 history records