Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:57:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
30 0x3020…89a4 sports 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$435 (+11%) realized +$591 · open −$156
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$1,003per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$654now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +9.6% -0.9% 33% 33% -6.5%
≤30d 3 +9.6% -0.9% 33% 33% -6.5%
≤90d 3 +9.6% -0.9% 33% 33% -6.5%
all 3 +9.6% -0.9% 33% 33% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 33% -6.5%
10% -10.3% 33% -15.4%
15% -19.0% 33% -23.6%
20% -27.0% 33% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,429 vs −$660 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$654
Realized+$591
Unrealized−$156
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,003
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 39¢ 32¢ $810 $654 −$156 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 19 $1,071 −$238 -22%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1,132 −$1,083 -96%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $974 +$1,429 +147%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 39¢ $833 9m
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Chicago White Sox 29¢ $833 13m
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 35¢ $1,071 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $49 3h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,132 4h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 100¢ $2,403 22h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $974 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $654.46 · official $509.02 · 7 history records